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Entry # Time Turn Player Title Entry
425 1/1/2019 5:31:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message i hadn't noticed unpinned caen tanks, but not something that's worth a tank to prevent. i virtually never leave a brit tank in caen. gives up too much punch.
424 1/1/2019 5:20:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message i see four key moments when the game swung.

ONE
The mere campaign on 7th. prolly coin flip to clear it, counting all rolls. massively important and the allies were way ahead.

TWO
early bombs on 8th. both cara and backdoor were very vulnerable, but a bunch of bomb downrolls gave germans critical respite and put you back in the game. i needed one of those theaters to succeed.

THREE
Omaha incompentence late 9th and early 10th. with each failed attack, i felt the game was slipping through my fingers, grain by grain.

FOUR
redic hailmary on 11th.
https://www.vikings.com/video/minneapolis-miracle-keenum-to-diggs-for-the-win-20253676

423 1/1/2019 5:15:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message I am going to step away, but I'd like to go back and forth with a little commentary.

First, probably I shouldn't be saying this when you're down about 20 for the game. But *you lucky bastard!*

Second, I think Caen is the fitting end. It illustrates that econ tells in the end in the most boring way. You grind in +1 terrain in Troarn, in +2 terrain in Carentan, and then there isn't enough to prevent the hammer from falling at Caen. Maybe I floated a little too much risk there, but meh, I'm not unhappy with my defense at the end. It felt like a 10% game at that point, and you got it. I think you maximized it, too. I was forked: My peninsula position dictated my first move, so you could regroup for maximum effect.

Great use of the Advantage. There were a couple of moments where I'd have been tempted to use it. But like Greenwood in the Final 2 years ago, you just held onto it until it was absolutely, positively desperation time.

Man, this is a tough game for the Germans to win. I think I was in real trouble, in a magic bridge game (soft bridge, and there was some Allied luck there, but still, a magic bridge game) and with a slow Sword. The Troarn development was no blitz. It was slow and steady. Perhaps the days went a little longer than expectation, but nothing out of the usual run of things. Put more simply, this was a game that was pretty even or even Allied tilted until some terrible luck on the 9th & 10th pushed it heavy to the Germans. If the Germans are going to need luck to win real standard games like this, man, it's tough.

In other words, I want to come back and look at my defense again. I didn't hit with the artillery and it would have helped. I think I like the SS arty in Houlgate, but maybe I don't. A defense concentrated in Potigny, Bourguebus, and Troarn might be better. I think it's best to keep the Germans honest in Merville with something, though. I'm not inclined to change it.

This is a subtle thing and I didn't know if it would have surprised you. My armor in Caen was never pinned. I was counting on moving out from Caen into Bourg, then moving or even counterattacking into Troarn with iron. But a simple move of an Allied armor into Caen would have prevented that. When I was really counting Troarn factors, that problem gave me fits. I wanted to count on iron, if I needed him, but a basically free move by you would have prevented it.

But... the old Allied play said there was on Allied throwaway armor early in the game. You needed 2 armor to lead 2 kill stacks, and one could be disrupted or defend Caen. You've developed the Allied play to take maximum advantage of every armor. I'd imagine that you can barely stand the idea that one of your precious armor will pull defense duty in Caen. And that's probably an excellent development in Allied play.
422 1/1/2019 5:11:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message allied pilots on 10th took away your hail marys on 11th.

i'll prolly end up with 10.6, with catz and valog, but it's a lot of time for a two percenter, if that.


421 1/1/2019 5:08:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message uproll gives you mere back. that would have been stylish.

I didn't see that at all, hehe.
420 1/1/2019 5:00:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message The path now is so narrow that I think it's appropriate to concede.
419 1/1/2019 4:48:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

1
4
3
1


Message from nels germans:
spin the adv and roll that again...
418 1/1/2019 4:47:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

1
1
1
4


Message from nels germans:
I will *never* comment on a game when I'm ahead.
I will *never* comment on a game when I'm ahead.
I will *never* comment on a game when I'm ahead.

11GA' Activate Lessay (how often do we say that?) Lehr/2 moves to Periers, to Carentan and assaults supported by corps arty @ 6:3.

You may Save Private Ryan. But I'll take his mates. I've been good, too, Santa, and a +3 will OR...
417 1/1/2019 3:41:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message lengthen day.

over to 11ga
416 1/1/2019 3:24:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message caen OR. I get two pulse shift but I need to pause to think.

allies now have 9.3.

415 1/1/2019 3:19:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message no fucking way.
414 1/1/2019 3:18:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

6
5
3
1


Message from bob allies:
last shot for the game.
413 1/1/2019 3:17:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Edit advantage bob allies: from 1 to 0
nels germans: from 0 to 1
412 1/1/2019 3:17:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

5
1
6
2


Message from bob allies:
24-14, 24-30 total def

I think the odds are 5% but I get two shots.
411 1/1/2019 3:16:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message you're correct...I was counting brown arty.

this is my only shot. kitchen sink into caen
410 1/1/2019 2:20:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message Start of the 11th map:

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/d89q1zf06zqdkdm/AACWA7Ozl00nJVhO7Bc-uMWka?dl=0
409 1/1/2019 2:18:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message 11 G reinforcements: All of 17ss to Zone D. Other optionals to Zone B.

11G0 Act. La Haye, move 3x inf to Valognes and stop. Over to you.
408 1/1/2019 2:04:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message I think I see +6 to clear. 6 + 9 add'l units + 2 corps arty + 4 div arty + 3 divisions (1 div is a unit shy) = 24.

DV = 7 lead + 3 add'l + 4 TEM = 14.

I think what you're really doing is making sure you can't get stuffed. 2:12 stalemate, baby. ;)
407 1/1/2019 12:41:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message very nice graph. it says a lot.
406 1/1/2019 12:32:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message 82 rolls so far. As late as roll 54 the cumulative diff was 0. Now you're at -27 for the game.
405 1/1/2019 12:30:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message Cumulative Allied DR - German DR.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ1ju1EaSOZJ5mIx1jjxeAxw7JxHQGv-efCMa1Xl4sWqquDimu5KaCJhWxfcx8eLRV9zJcBZ_5L5kWC/pubchart?oid=203061512&format=interactive
404 1/1/2019 12:14:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Edit supply bob allies: from 19 to 22
nels germans: from 0 to 0
403 1/1/2019 12:14:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message forgot it was sunny day. 3 units repaired with air. add 3 to bank
402 1/1/2019 11:59:00 AM Turn 1 bob allies Message regroups saved. reinf to Utah.

I pulled out of caen. If I send everything I need +5 to clear caen at dawn.

over to 11g0
401 1/1/2019 11:58:00 AM Turn 1 bob allies Edit supply bob allies: from 20 to 19
nels germans: from 0 to 0
400 1/1/2019 11:53:00 AM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 1

1


Message from bob allies:
save one less supply, I need bridge roll catz
399 1/1/2019 11:43:00 AM Turn 1 bob allies Edit supply bob allies: from 10 to 20
nels germans: from 0 to 0
398 1/1/2019 11:43:00 AM Turn 1 bob allies Message match your buy. still save 20
397 1/1/2019 11:42:00 AM Turn 1 bob allies Message air whiff.

0 monte
0 colum
5 isig
2 bay
6 merv
7 troarn
396 1/1/2019 11:40:00 AM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

3
5
1
4


Message from bob allies:
air monte
395 1/1/2019 10:19:00 AM Turn 1 nels germans Message 10G regroups are in. Over to you.
394 12/31/2018 8:45:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message G refits are in. I'm buying one pulse, to 1. I'll do my regroups in the morning, whether or not you do your refits.
393 12/31/2018 8:43:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Edit supply bob allies: from 10 to 10
nels germans: from 2 to 0
392 12/31/2018 8:32:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message I wrote a log file, but I'm redoing it. Ignore it if you see it.
391 12/31/2018 1:15:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message Iím going to do some dice analysis and I should get to my r & r this evening.
390 12/31/2018 1:14:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message Yes. I hate commenting on boards where I am ahead. Bad things happen. But I agree, itís a tough board. Interesting because a couple of different things could break right to make a path to 9.6 or 8.13. There isnít just one Hail Mary. If you hadnít cleared both Troarn and Montebourg it would have been a disaster board. Omaha is a debacle and offers needed relief from the attrition in Troarn.
389 12/31/2018 12:41:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message this map isn't as competitive as it looks.

allies need 4 more vp in two days. and only 1 is a gimme (catz).
388 12/31/2018 12:16:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message fail. dusk.

over to refits
387 12/31/2018 12:15:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

1
4
6
1


Message from bob allies:
last red hits foret.

7-6
386 12/31/2018 12:07:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message whiff. no map. back to you
385 12/31/2018 12:06:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

3
1
3
4


Message from nels germans:
10G6 act merville bomb from houlgate at 6:3, tgt spent armor...
384 12/31/2018 11:50:00 AM Turn 1 bob allies Message over to 6
383 12/31/2018 11:50:00 AM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 1

4


Message from bob allies:
fast stuff runs back to merv, para stay.

mez bridge

382 12/31/2018 11:49:00 AM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

5
2
3
5


Message from bob allies:
as requested, here is culmination of series of pulse intended to clear area with big attack.

merv.

one tank, 3 para, 2 greens, green arty.

15-4
381 12/31/2018 11:28:00 AM Turn 1 nels germans Message 1 para to D2. Over to you. Map posted in a sec.
380 12/31/2018 11:27:00 AM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

2
1
1
2


Message from nels germans:
Act. Carentan, bombard with corps arty, tgt any para, @ 3:2...
379 12/31/2018 11:16:00 AM Turn 1 nels germans Message CA eliminated. Inf retreats D2 to Valognes for 5 CPs - 1 for bocage = 4 CPs.
378 12/30/2018 10:10:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message over to 5

377 12/30/2018 10:10:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message I guess the trick is TELLING santa what I want.


barely clears, inf retreats d2 to your choice
376 12/30/2018 10:07:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

6
3
4
2


Message from bob allies:
this might be a clear-or-go-home sitch. need a +3 roll.

mere green into monte

7-5


375 12/30/2018 9:55:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message Oops. Yes, I'll still use CA as the lead. Def is 5.
374 12/30/2018 9:55:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message 10G4 Act. Valognes, move inf to Montebourg. Lead defender in Mont will now be D1 CA for def of 6.

A4 up.
373 12/30/2018 9:52:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message the coastal was d1...nuke and air both hit it
372 12/30/2018 9:50:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message That was 14:9 because I owned that bridge for +2 to defense: 4 lead + 3 TEM + 2 bridge. I'll leave the CA @ D1 in the area and retreat the flak @ D2 to Valognes.
371 12/30/2018 9:47:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message wow. huge roll.
370 12/30/2018 9:43:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message one step survives.

over to 4
369 12/30/2018 9:41:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

2
2
2
4


Message from bob allies:
mere.

2 greens, 3 para, green arty bang monte.

14-8
368 12/30/2018 9:38:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message whiff. No map. Back to you.
367 12/30/2018 9:37:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message got em both.

over to 3 again
366 12/30/2018 9:37:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

5
1
2
6


Message from nels germans:
10G3-1 Act. Foret, bombard from St. Lo @ 4:3, tgt the spent 1st division unit...
365 12/30/2018 9:37:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message I believe that was 10G3? Map posted. Over to 10A3.
364 12/30/2018 9:36:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

4
2
2
3


Message from bob allies:
air monte coastal

5-3
363 12/30/2018 9:35:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message Nope, stopped, D1 in Gavray. Over to you. Posting map now.
362 12/30/2018 9:34:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 1

1


Message from nels germans:
I presume that you'll allow that I meant the divisional 3FS/flak made it to St. Lo (I specified "the flak). It's not going to matter for div integrity after the bloodbath in Percy, anyway.

I have one more unit. 12th independent flak will try to move to Gavray to Coutances (d1)...
361 12/30/2018 9:31:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message Hold, I have one more unit.
360 12/30/2018 9:30:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message both arty make it to Coutances. End of impulse.
359 12/30/2018 9:30:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 2

4
5


Message from nels germans:
Made it. Continuing impulse.

corps arty to Gavray to Coutances (d1)

div artyy to Gavray to Coutances (d2)
358 12/30/2018 9:29:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 2

3
4


Message from nels germans:
2FS D1 in Percy. Same with the flak...
357 12/30/2018 9:28:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 2

1
3


Message from nels germans:
9fs D1 in Percy. Same with 2FS...
356 12/30/2018 9:26:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 2

1
2


Message from nels germans:
8FS is D1 on Percy. Same for 9FS...
355 12/30/2018 9:25:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 2

1
4


Message from nels germans:
spent in le-Mesnil. Same for 8FS...
354 12/30/2018 9:24:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 2

3
2


Message from nels germans:
Act. Zone E, move 5fs to Percy, to le-Mesnil (d1), to St. Lo (d2)...
353 12/30/2018 9:06:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message Foret retreat, 32nd flak to D2 and R to Balleroy.

Leaves 1st flak D2, plus spent 2nd flak that moved in later from St. Lo.
352 12/30/2018 8:32:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message right. usually I play with more of a laser focus on predetermined areas. but this map less so. partially this is due to you cockblocking my target areas and partially because I am finding good equity in smaller attacks.

the gold pulse this turn is example of it. typically I would just shove everything into bay, for near auto OR. but tilly poison apple tempted me, 25% to clear, 50 contest, 25 fail is good equity for 4 units. with a second strike team to capitalize if win. but it also exposes allies to downside tail risk. all those small attacks can fail.

351 12/30/2018 8:25:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message over to 3
350 12/30/2018 8:24:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message both flip.

you need to choose how to retreat from foret (last pulse)
349 12/30/2018 8:22:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

2
1
1
4


Message from bob allies:
nuke monte coastal

9-3
348 12/30/2018 8:06:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message 10G2 Act. St. Lo, move the 2nd flak into Foret. Over to you. No map.
347 12/30/2018 8:04:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message An observation. As you outlined before, not a criticism, but a comment.

Your play draws from me an arbitraged response. Maybe I'm doing it right, maybe not. But you're not loading up to take a set number of impulses ending with a 15+ assault intended to clear an area. You play situationally with a min-max function to get certain priorities done, but to hurt as much as possible as well. (Hence Troarn +1 terrain as a killing ground instead of more valuable Caen at +4.)

It more or less forces me into a game where I feed units into the maw. Or maybe I'm a little eager to feed units in, with an eye to the up roll for my side.

In other words, I wonder a little bit if my game is a mirror, in a way, of your game. You assault with single units to ratchet up the cost for the Germans in +1 terrain; I feed units in to ratchet up the cost to the Allies.

You've had terrible luck for a stretch here, so it makes my strategy look effective. But this is just intended as commentary. You and Hammond and others may have been figuring this out for a couple years. But for me, this is a new way of analyzing the game.
346 12/30/2018 7:52:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message after soak, 3cp.

one step survives.

over to 2

345 12/30/2018 7:50:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

1
3
3
1


Message from bob allies:
foret. 1 red, 2 purples assault (1 red sits out)

9-5
344 12/30/2018 4:32:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message Bridge down.

Yes, big up rolls for me. No map at the moment, I might get to it later. Have fun watching the Vikings.

Over to 1-something for you.
343 12/30/2018 4:31:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 1

5


Message from nels germans:
10G1-something Act. Troarn, blow Potigny br on 2+...
342 12/30/2018 4:10:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message i'm off to watch Vikings. back tonight
341 12/30/2018 4:09:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message In the midst of an epic dice collapse here.

flipped the pak.

over to 1 again
340 12/30/2018 4:08:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

4
4
6
6


Message from bob allies:
I had hopes of going north. but got brickwalled everywhere so need cara.

bb cara pak

8-2
339 12/30/2018 3:52:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message got it, no map. back to you.
338 12/30/2018 3:52:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 1

5


Message from nels germans:
1 again, or whatever it is, blow the catz-isigny br on 4+...
337 12/30/2018 3:44:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message whiff. over to 1 again
336 12/30/2018 3:43:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

2
5
5
5


Message from bob allies:
air borg big flak

5-2
335 12/30/2018 3:31:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message This is weird. We're playing the same game. You are killing units, and I am giving you units to kill.
334 12/30/2018 3:31:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message 10G1-1 Act. Mezidon, move the infantry into Troarn. No map. Back to you.
333 12/30/2018 3:25:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message troarn flipped.

over to 1 again
332 12/30/2018 3:25:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

6
1
3
4


Message from bob allies:
brit bb troarn
331 12/30/2018 3:23:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Message whiff. 10A1 up. No change to the map.
330 12/30/2018 3:22:00 PM Turn 1 nels germans Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 1

3


Message from nels germans:
Act. Catz, blow Isigny br on 4+...
329 12/30/2018 2:42:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Message over to 1
328 12/30/2018 2:41:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 1

2


Message from bob allies:
bay OR. tank tries foret bridge
327 12/30/2018 2:40:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

6
6
4
1


Message from bob allies:
nope. not that either.

tank, 3 browns, brown arty into bay. inf swim, tank via brett.

12-8
326 12/30/2018 2:37:00 PM Turn 1 bob allies Die roll request Request: 6-sided die x 4

3
3
5
4


Message from bob allies:
bridge nope.

tilly

11-9

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